Reading Tandem: How Civil Wars Start & It Could Happen Here

 

In the first thought-provoking book, a leading political scientist examines the dramatic rise in violent extremism around the globe and sounds the alarm on the increasing likelihood of a second civil war in the United States. 

Book #1:

How Civil Wars Start and How to Stop Them by Barbara F. Walter (Professor of International Relations and member of the Political Instability Task Force, a U.S.-sponsored international research project to build a database on major domestic political conflicts leading to state failures.)

Over the last two decades, the number of active civil wars around the world has almost doubled. Barbara F. Walter has spent her career studying civil conflict in places like Iraq and Sri Lanka, but now she has become increasingly worried about our own country.

• A presidential candidate suggests that if he loses the election gun owners could prevent his opponent from becoming president.
• A far-right “militia” plots to kidnap the governor of Michigan and try her for treason.
• Three “militias” coordinate an attack on the U.S. Capitol.

Are these isolated incidents? Or is this the start of something bigger?

Drawing on the latest international research and lessons from over twenty countries, Walter identifies the crucial risk factors:—where wars tend to start, who initiates them, what triggers them—and why some countries tip over into conflict while others remain stable.

Here are 2 warning signs that certainly got my attention.

Warning Sign #1 - Polity Score

The Center for Systemic Peace (CSP) calculated our Polity Score , and for the first time in more than two centuries, the United States no longer qualified as a democracy. 

We have gone from a +10 in 1974 to a +5 in 2020! We are on a downward trend.  

Why?

We are no longer the world’s oldest continuous democracy. We have moved from democracy to anocracy. The term "anocracy" characterizes a regime type featuring qualities of political instability and ineffectiveness, as well as an "incoherent mix of democratic and autocratic traits and practices."

Perhaps surprisingly, both autocracies and healthy democracies are largely immune from civil war; it’s the countries in the middle ground that are most vulnerable. And this is where more and more countries, including the United States, are finding themselves today.

Warning Sign #2 - Ten Stages of Genocide

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“Ten Stages of Genocide” is a formula for how a society can engage in genocide. Genocide cannot be committed by an individual or small group; rather, it takes the cooperation of a large number of people and the state. 

Unfortunately, Walter estimates that we are at stage 5, moving to stage 6:

Stage 1 Classification: Deep ideological divide: classified by race, geography (rural vs. urban), and beliefs (Christian vs. Non-Christian). “Us” or “them” – avoid working and living with others from different backgrounds and stop searching for common ground.

Flags and symbols as numbered above: 1. Altered national/state flags, 2. 2nd Amendment rights flags ,3. Gadsden Flag, 4. Betsy Ross / America First flag, 5. Pine Tree Flag, 6. Three Percenters, 7. Trump flags, 8. Come and Take it flag

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Stage 2 Symbolism: Appropriated symbols - “Members of America’s far-right faction have appropriated symbols — think of the now ubiquitous Confederate flag, the orange hats of the Proud Boys, or even the Hawaiian shirts flaunted by extremists in Charlottesville or at the Capitol.”

Stage 3 Discrimination: Denying or suppressing the rights of others by law or by practice

- Voting restriction laws designed specifically to target and reduce minority turnout at elections, racial discrimination

- Legislators are more likely to respond to and act on an email with a white -sounding name than an identical email with a Black-sounding name.

Stage 4 Dehumanization: President, lawmakers, and media figures dehumanizing immigrants, Non-Christians, etc.

– The 2018 Family Separation Policy, “These aren’t people – these are animals.” “We have a problem in this country, it’s called Muslims, when can we get rid of them.” Trump.

Very few Republications have ever spoken out against dehumanization, implying that it is “okay.”

Stage 5 Organization: Social media, “militias,” Oath Keepers, Proud Boys, etc

- January 6, 2021 protesters showed up wearing bulletproof vests, carrying gas masks, zip ties, bear spray, and various weapons. (vs. The 2017 Women’s March when hundreds of thousands of women took to the streets in the nation’s capital. Millions more joined in sister marches across the country and around the world. They showed up with signs and pink hats.)

Stage 6 Polarization: In Walter’s analysis, the United States may right now be entering the sixth stage, polarization, which can progress to “demonizing and separating the target group”

• - January 6, 2021 protesters broke down the main door on the Capitol’s west side chanting the names of their targets: Pelosi, Schumer, Pence
• – RNC censored Republicans serving on the committee investigating January 6
• - Representative Greene endorsing violence against Democrats

all of which can lead to imprisoning or killing members of the “target group.”

What could happen next? Preparations could be made to “get rid of” the target group. Then fear and hate will combine to outfit an army that carries out the persecution and extermination. The tenth stage, denial, is when the dominant group says none of it happened.

A civil war today won’t look like America in the 1860s, Spain in the 1930s, or Russia in the 1920s. It will begin with sporadic acts of violence and terror, accelerated by social media. It will sneak up on us and leave us wondering how we could have been so blind. We need to acknowledge what is happening. Passivity, silence, “unfriending” people, and avoiding difficult conversations do not help.

Book #2

It Could Happen Here by Jonathan Greenblatt (CEO of the Anti-Defamation League (ADL), former director of Office of Social Innovation and Civic Participation)

Jonathan Greenblatt shares Barbara F. Walter’s assessment of our predicament. While this book is an indictment of antisemitism on both the left and the right, it focuses on right-wing extremists because they were linked to 26 of 29 extremist-related murders in the U.S. in 2021 and have been responsible for 75 percent of such murders in the last ten years. 

adl.org

The ADL has decades of experience in fighting hate through research, education, and legislative efforts. Their pyramid of hate model adds granularity to Walter’s Polity Score and Stages of Genocide. This model begins with small, seemingly innocuous acts of hate - Bullying, Ridicule, Name-calling, Slurs/Epithets, Social Avoidance, Dehumanization, Biased/Belittling jokes.

These are acts we may witness everyday and ignore – “He’s just “joking.” “Don’t be so sensitive.”

Or avoid responding to for fear of becoming a target - “So what do you care? What are you woke? You are such a libtard, snowflake!”

If we allow acts of bias, even seemingly innocuous ones, they become pervasive and our society begins to climb up the pyramid of hate.

Fortunately, Greenblatt offers a framework for how we can act during this age of hate.

• “SPEAK UP means when you see something, you say something, even if it’s uncomfortable. Muster the courage to step up and step out, even if you’re alone.
• SHARE FACTS means grounding your response in evidence and data. If you are engaging online, speak as calmly and respectfully as you would if the conversation were occurring face to face.
• SHOW STRENGTH means digging deep and boldly defending yourself but also looking out for those in need of protection. Stand up for yourself and serve as an ally in situations when hatred doesn’t affect you directly.”

If you are not sure what to say when you speak up, Greenblatt offers these strategies:

adl.org

My thoughts after reading both of these books:

While both books document the dangerous slide our nation is taking from democracy towards civil war and genocide, they both offer ways to stop the decline. First and foremost, speak up using the strategies outlined above.

Personal experience has taught me that even if you speak up, share facts, and show strength some people simply won’t listen to you, they will call you names, and “unfriend” you. I can live with a few less “friends.” But I can’t live knowing that our nation’s ideals have been hijacked by hate.

We can preserve our democracy by researching and reading authoritative, reliable sources in order to educate ourselves about local, state, and national issues. We can vote. We can communicate with our elected officials about issues and legislation. We can increase our understanding and develop relationships while volunteering or participating in community organizations. We can renew our commitment to helping the most vulnerable people rather than dehumanizing them.

Finally, we can remember “E Pluribus Unum” – that out of many we become one. Our shared history can inspire and guide us to fulfill the original ideal of our nation - "We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness".

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